Can Africa’s first WTO chief help her own continent or avert US-China cold war?
- Nigeria’s Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala to become director general of World Trade Organization after US dropped its objection
- But the US has been obstructive in the WTO and some analysts argue the body faces a struggle to regain its relevance
William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the 66-year-old Okonjo-Iweala, a development economist, needed to reassert the organisation’s three main functions: negotiation, dispute settlement and notification of measures.
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“All three are essentially failing, so she has a lot of work ahead of her,” he said.
As soon as the US backed her candidacy, Okonjo-Iweala – who was recently granted American citizenship – said on Twitter that she thanked leaders across the world and “[looked] forward to finalising the process of WTO DG”.
During her campaign for the role last year, she pledged to find common ground among the body’s disparate membership. She said the benefits of the WTO and trade “must be brought home and made real to the ordinary woman and man on the street”.
What is the US-China trade war?
Louw Nel, a senior political analyst at NKC African Economics, a subsidiary of Oxford Economics, said the Trump administration had “often disparaged and questioned the role of the organisation, accusing it of bias in favour of China”.
Nel said the US also opposed China’s designation as a developing country, which affords it special provisions in respect of WTO agreements.
Nel said WTO director generals did not wield much direct power but did perform a crucial leadership role that helped shape the direction of the organisation.
“As such, Ms Okonjo-Iweala’s appointment is seen as a boon for Africa,” he said. “It may, however, take some time before any real benefits are apparent.”
“A change of leadership may not change anything if there is no goodwill from major economies such as the US and China,” Erixon said, adding that the race to become director general “hasn’t been one with a lot of politically strong characters involved”.
“There used to be former heads of governments involved, but as the organisation has lost a lot of its relevance, the job of DG is seen as less important and no one thinks Okonjo-Iweala or anyone else has the capacity to move things very much.”
Raj Bhala, distinguished professor at the University of Kansas law school, said the top issues awaiting Okonjo-Iweala included restarting the appellate body and sealing a deal on fishing subsidies.
But he said the WTO was not the right forum to handle the complex mix of economic, security and political issues contributing to the onset of a new cold war between the US and China.
“The WTO cannot fix this bilateral relationship, any more than the UN could have fixed the Soviet-American relationship,” Bhala said. “The solution rests in the minds and hearts of the two principal players.”
Craig VanGrasstek, a trade historian and consultant, said Okonjo-Iweala’s authority would be limited.
“Electing someone WTO director general is like making them captain of a ship but denying them control of the engines,” VanGrasstek said. “The captain may influence the direction, but the choices are in the hands of the members.”
