The 2024 #NewtownPA Area Comprehensive Plan: Housing

The 109-page FINAL DRAFT of the 2024 Newtown Area Comprehensive Plan (“the Plan”) was approved for advertising by the Newtown Township Board of Supervisors at its March 27, 2024, meeting. Other member municipalities of the Jointure – Wrightstown and Upper Makefield – are expected to do the same, if they have not done so already.

Blueprint for the Future

The Plan was developed by the Bucks County Planning Commission (BCPC), and the current version dated 2/27/24 is the result of several years of back and forth deliberations among Jointure members. The Plan, which contains nine guiding principles for the future, is said to be a “blueprint for the future,” i.e., specifically for the next 10 years (it is a 10-year plan).

Each Jointure municipality will hold a public meeting to answer questions and hear comments from residents. Newtown Township’s plans to include this at its May 22. 2024, Board of Supervisors meeting.

Note that the previous 10-year Comprehensive Plan was published in 2009. So, the Jointure has been a bit tardy in developing the new 10-year plan. I'll come back to this at the end of this article (see “P.S. One Caveat”).

In order to help Newtown Township residents prepare for the scheduled May 22, 2024, public meeting, I hope to prepare several short synopses of major sections of the Plan. This first synopsis focuses on:

Principle #1 - PROMOTE SMART GROWTH

The Plan includes 9 Principles. Principle #1 states, in part: “Preserve the character of each community in compliance with the Municipalities Planning Code while maintaining the integrity of the zoning ordinance. Accommodate anticipated growth [emphasis added] in defined development areas in all three Jointure townships to meet the area’s obligations to provide for new residents in a variety of housing choices.”

Video Summary

What exactly is the Plan's projection regarding anticipated growth?

According to the Plan: “The Jointure municipalities are expected to grow modestly in the next 10 years. The goal of the comprehensive plan is to guide development to avoid sprawl and continue to maintain a land use pattern that focuses development in logical growth areas and that preserves natural and agricultural areas.” [See page 14 of the Plan.]

Newtown Township Survey Results
What is “Smart Growth?
I’m not sure, but I do know that Newtown residents believe “over development” generally is not smart. Back in the September 2023, I hosted a short surveythat asked “How Concerned Are You About Over Development in Newtown Township?”

That survey received 188 responses (including 141 responses from Newtown Township and 14 Borough residents) plus over 130 comments. Over 80% of survey respondents (including Newtown Twp residents as well) were “Very Concerned” about [commercial] overdevelopment in Newtown Township.

Population and Growth Rates

Based on housing development hearings before the Newtown Board of Supervisors and the Planning Commission, I know that population growth and multi-unit housing developments, which is the focus of Principle #1, are also concerns of current residents.

According the the Plan, “The total population in the three municipalities increased from 2,379 in 1930 to 11,311 in 1980. In the years since 1980, the population has jumped to 31,203. Estimates for 2020 show Newtown’s population at 19,606, Upper Makefield at 8,503, and Wrightstown at 3,094. Between 2000 and 2020, the Jointure grew by 10 percent, compared with 5 percent for Bucks County as a whole. Upper Makefield Township had the highest growth rate (18.4 percent) with Wrightstown at 9 percent and Newtown at 7.7 percent.”

“The total number of housing units in the Jointure grew from 10,428 in 1990 to 12,533 in 2020, an increase of about 20 percent. Homeownership rates were above the county average in the Jointure, where between 83 and 93 percent of households own their homes.

“Residential development that has occurred in the past 40 years results in a housing stock that is relatively new. In Newtown Township, 78.4 percent of the housing units have been built since 1980. This is significantly higher than Upper Makefield, where 55.9 percent were built since 1980 or Wrightstown where the number is 40.5 percent.”

Projections For Future Population and Housing Growth

One of the goals of the Plan is to “guide development to avoid sprawl and continue to maintain a land use pattern that focuses development in logical growth areas and that preserves natural and agricultural areas” [emphasis added].

According to the Plan: “The three Jointure townships are projected to grow to 31,587 [residents] by the year 2030, or an increase of 384 persons over the 2020 population of 31,203. Using prevailing household sizes, this translates into a projected housing increase of 153 housing units between 2020 and 2030.” [See page 13 of the Plan.] Meanwhile, the Plan estimates future housing need in the residential development area of the Jointure townships of “71 units between 2020 and 2030.” [See page 16 of the Plan.]

Newtown Approved and Proposed Housing Developments Since 2020

Whereas the Plan’s projections for housing units in Newtown Township between 2020 and 2030 is 96 (to allow for a projected population increase of 224 people with 2.4 persons per housing unit*), the number of housing units already approved, built or proposed since 2020 in Newtown is much larger.

*Note: According to the 2020 Census, the average family size in PA is 2.49 persons.

Housing Units Already Built or in the Process of Being Built:

• 60 Mayfield (formerly Arcadia Green) single-family homes located southwest corner of the intersection of the Newtown Bypass (S.R. 0332) and Buck Road (S.R. 0532); read “Newtown Township Supervisors Approved a Settlement Agreement with Arcadia That Ends a 6-Year Battle”.

Housing Units Approved But Not Yet Built:

• 45 Toll Bros single-family homes on Durham Road in Conservation Management Zone; read “Newtown Supervisors Approve Toll Bros. Plan For 45 New Homes with North Drive Access”.

Housing Units Proposed But Not Yet Built:

• 120 unit Bet Investments apartment building located in the at South Sycamore Street and Richboro Road in the TC (Town Center) district. The current zoning (3.22 dwelling units per acre) does not allow for such a structure (more that 20 du/ac); read “#NewtownPA Planning Commission Raises Concerns Over Proposed 120-Unit Apartment Complex”.

• 225 unit Kushner RE multi-story apartment building in the Office Research (OR) zone on Lower Silver Lake Road; The current zoning does not allow for such a structure in this zone; read “Developer Files Legal Challenge To #NewtownPA Township's Zoning Law”.

TOTAL NEW UNITS TO DATE = 60 + 45 + 120 + 225 = 450

Assuming 2.4 persons per family household (see Table 1), this works out to be a population increase for Newtown Township of 1,080 by 2030 (6% over 2020) if all this development occurred. This is 4.8 times the estimate assumed by the Plan; i.e., 224.

Assuming only 2.0 persons (e.g., “young professionals”) per APARTMENT and 2.4 persons per single-family HOUSE, we get 345 apts X 2 persons per apt = 690 people. Add to this 105 houses X 2.4 persons per house = 252 people and you get 690 + 252 = 942 population increase by 2030 (more than 5% over 2020). This is 4.2 times the estimate assumed by the Plan.

Is This “Over Development” or “Unsmart Development”?

Most of the proposed development – i.e., the 345 apartments – is in zones where it is not permitted by Jointure zoning. Consequently, developers are challenging the zoning and/or suggesting amendments to the zoning. Most Newtown Township residents might consider giving in to developers as “unsmart.”

Interestingly, the Plan authors seem to be OK with this: “Residential uses permitted by the zoning ordinance may also be appropriate in the portion of these areas north of the Newtown Bypass [e.g., OR District]; such uses should generally not be permitted in the office and research areas south of the Bypass.”

In addition to the development mentioned above, the Jointure is considering creating an LI/OLI district overlay, which allows multi-unit mixed-use apartment buildings (read “LI/O-LI JMZO Amendment Sent to the Jointure for Review”). The LI/OLI district is an office/research area south of the Bypass, just across from the OR district. The overlay plan was developed by the Bucks County Planning Commission, which coincidently (?) also developed the the Comprehensive Plan. So, on the one hand BCPC's Plan says residential use in this area south of the Bypass should not be allowed, yet it has designed an overlay of the LI/OLI district to actually allow such a use!

P.S. One Caveat

The projections in the current Plan are based on the period 2020 t0 2030. That's because the Plan was supposed to be published in 2019 - 10 years after the previous plan. As it now stands the Plan will be published in 2024 meaning the population and housing projections should be revised to fit the actual period covered by the Plan; i.e., 2025-2035.

Revising these projections, however, is not likely to be approved because from this point forward, any changes that are proposed to be made to the Comprehensive Plan, except spelling, punctuation correction or similar minor change, will trigger the restart of the review process and may require additional public hearings.

And nobody wants to further delay the project!

Related Content:

• “The #NewtownPA Area Joint Comprehensive Plan is Ready for Review by Jointure Planning Commissions”; https://sco.lt/61Xmam
• “Newtown Planning Commission Members Discuss Projects Related to the Comprehensive Plan”; https://sco.lt/9HdGme
• “Guiding Principles of the New #NewtownPA Area Comprehensive Plan: Recognizes "Threat" of Climate Change”; https://sco.lt/685MS8
• “Jointure Comprehensive Plan Survey: Summary of Responses From Newtown Township Residents”; https://sco.lt/7bBrOK