• Initial note
  • Global overview plots
    • Predicted total confirmed end-of-wave cases
    • End-of-wave confirmed cases per 1000 population
    • Current stage of epidemic wave
    • Normalized country trajectories compared
  • Predicted case trajectories for individual countries
    • Afghanistan
    • Albania
    • Angola
    • Argentina
    • Australia
    • Austria
    • Bahrain
    • Bangladesh
    • Belarus
    • Belgium
    • Bolivia
    • Botswana
    • Brazil
    • Bulgaria
    • Burma
    • Canada
    • Chile
    • China
    • Colombia
    • Congo (Kinshasa)
    • Costa Rica
    • Cote d’Ivoire
    • Croatia
    • Cuba
    • Cyprus
    • Czechia
    • Denmark
    • Dominican Republic
    • Egypt
    • Estonia
    • Eswatini
    • Finland
    • France
    • Georgia
    • Germany
    • Greece
    • Guatemala
    • Hungary
    • Iceland
    • India
    • Indonesia
    • Iran
    • Iraq
    • Ireland
    • Israel
    • Italy
    • Jamaica
    • Japan
    • Jordan
    • Kazakhstan
    • Kenya
    • Korea, South
    • Kosovo
    • Kuwait
    • Latvia
    • Lebanon
    • Libya
    • Lithuania
    • Luxembourg
    • Madagascar
    • Malawi
    • Malaysia
    • Maldives
    • Malta
    • Mauritania
    • Mexico
    • Moldova
    • Montenegro
    • Mozambique
    • Namibia
    • Nepal
    • Netherlands
    • Nigeria
    • Norway
    • Pakistan
    • Panama
    • Paraguay
    • Peru
    • Philippines
    • Poland
    • Portugal
    • Qatar
    • Romania
    • Russia
    • Rwanda
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Senegal
    • Serbia
    • Singapore
    • Slovakia
    • Slovenia
    • South Africa
    • Spain
    • Sri Lanka
    • Sweden
    • Switzerland
    • Thailand
    • Tunisia
    • Turkey
    • Uganda
    • Ukraine
    • United Kingdom
    • Uruguay
    • US
    • Venezuela
    • West Bank and Gaza
    • Zambia
    • Zimbabwe
  • Table: predicted cases in Poland going two months forward

Initial note

This page presents my forecasts, for all countries of the world with major numbers of COVID-19 cases, of the future trajectories of total confirmed cases, along with predicted daily new cases (synchronized in the lower plot). Predictions are least-squares fits to three-parameter Gompertz models using current case data from Johns Hopkins University’s Center for Systems Science and Engineering.

As these models rely on available confirmed cases, predictions are sensitive to any substantial changes to testing policy, such as intensity of testing (Ireland is a case in point, see the plot and note the jump on April 10th, when thousands of samples were outsourced to Germany; or Poland’s mass testing of miners in mid-May), classification of outcomes. The models are appropriate for a single epidemic wave. To navigate to a particular country of interest, you can use the top menu, or you can just hit Ctrl-F and search for the country name within your browser. A (small) number of countries have been excluded with very poor data quality.

At the top you’ll find several bird’s-eye view plots: my projections of how many cases more or less each country will end up with at the end of this epidemic wave: both in absolute numbers and relative to population, then an estimate of the stage of the epidemic by country, and normalized historic trajectories. Individual country trajectories follow. I conclude with two-month numeric predictions for Poland, where I’m based. Following a related but slightly different approach, here’s an interactive dashboard, and another one for US states.

Global overview plots

Predicted total confirmed end-of-wave cases

End-of-wave confirmed cases per 1000 population

Note that since the majority of carriers are asymptomatic, intensive testing will elevate confirmed cases (e.g. Bahrain)!

Current stage of epidemic wave

Scores in excess of 100 percent are indicative or a resurgence of cases (what they call a “second wave”), or an accummulation over a longer term of a relatively low-level but steady daily incidence

Normalized country trajectories compared

This is the only plot that’s not a forecast. Rather, each country’s last data point is the present, and the time scale is shifted individually, so that the starting points (and courses) are comparable, both being scaled to population size (a common error that I’ve seen is normalizing the starting point to absolute numbers, which effectively captures different epidemic stages in more and less populous countries).

Predicted case trajectories for individual countries

Note: isolated extreme daily counts and negative daily counts (artefacts in the JHU data) are not shown on the lower plots.

Afghanistan

Albania

Angola

Argentina

Australia

Austria

Bahrain

Bangladesh

Belarus

Belgium

Bolivia

Botswana

Brazil

Bulgaria

Burma

Canada

Chile

China

Colombia

Congo (Kinshasa)

Costa Rica

Cote d’Ivoire

Croatia

Cuba

Cyprus

Czechia

Denmark

Dominican Republic

Egypt

Estonia

Eswatini

Finland

France

Georgia

Germany

Greece

Guatemala

Hungary

Iceland

India

Indonesia

Iran

Iraq

Ireland

Israel

Italy

Jamaica

Japan

Jordan

Kazakhstan

Kenya

Korea, South

Kosovo

Kuwait

Latvia

Lebanon

Libya

Lithuania

Luxembourg

Madagascar

Malawi

Malaysia

Maldives

Malta

Mauritania

Mexico

Moldova

Montenegro

Mozambique

Namibia

Nepal

Netherlands

Nigeria

Norway

Pakistan

Panama

Paraguay

Peru

Philippines

Poland

Portugal

Qatar

Romania

Russia

Rwanda

Saudi Arabia

Senegal

Serbia

Singapore

Slovakia

Slovenia

South Africa

Spain

Sri Lanka

Sweden

Switzerland

Thailand

Tunisia

Turkey

Uganda

Ukraine

United Kingdom

Uruguay

US

Venezuela

West Bank and Gaza

Zambia

Zimbabwe

Table: predicted cases in Poland going two months forward

Date Predicted Daily New
2021-02-16 1551300 2388
2021-02-17 1553600 2318
2021-02-18 1555900 2250
2021-02-19 1558000 2183
2021-02-20 1560200 2119
2021-02-21 1562200 2056
2021-02-22 1564200 1995
2021-02-23 1566100 1936
2021-02-24 1568000 1879
2021-02-25 1569800 1823
2021-02-26 1571600 1769
2021-02-27 1573300 1716